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Saturday Night Rantings

post from Fanblogs.com on 08 November 2008 11:06:38 PM. © Fanblogs.com

With the Penn State loss we are all clear for an SEC vs Big 12 South national championship game.

I suppose Florida could lose to FSU (for example) and then turn around and upset Alabama in the SEC championship game. Alternatively, Alabama could lose to Auburn then beat Florida in the SEC Championship game. This would make a Big 12 South vs Big 12 South national championship game. This would likely put the SEC #2 in the Fiesta Bowl.

While permutations can still be found to get USC in, the odds are so remote these are negligible. It is significantly more likely that USC loses the PAC 10 and goes to the Fiesta Bowl. The calls for a USC vs SEC match up, and historical BCS non AQ success in the Fiesta Bowl, might send them to the Sugar Bowl in this case.

Michigan State look significantly more likely to win the Big 10 with Penn State's loss to Iowa, but would still need Ohio State to lose to either Illinois or Michigan. This would knock Penn State and Ohio State out of the top 14, leaving Michigan State as the only big 10 team in the top 14. One of these three teams will be in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State or Michigan State could end up as an at large in the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl, if USC wins the PAC 10 or falls out of the top 14.

The ACC and Big East have too many teams still in play to say anything really, but I don't see a path for either to get a team other than their champion BCS Eligible.

While it is significantly more likely that only one outsider gets into a BCS bowl, two are not out of the question. Utah would need to lose to both SDSU and BYU, plus losses by all other contenders, for no BCS outsider to get in.

My BCS top 15 Projections:
1) Alabama 2) Texas Tech 3) Texas 4) Florida 5) Oklahoma 6) USC 7) Utah 8) Penn State 9) Boise State 10) Ohio State 11) Georgia 12) Oklahoma State 13) Missouri 14) TCU 15) BYU

I am not as good as BCS GURU. Florida and Oklahoma are really close, as are TCU, BYU and Michigan State. Penn State could land on either side of Utah or Boise State as well.

Projected BCS Bowls:

NC: Texas Tech (60%) vs Alabama (45%); Texas 40%, Florida 40%, Oklahoma 15%

Rose: USC (80%) vs Penn State (50%); Ohio State 30%, MSU 20%, Oregon State 20%

Fiesta Bowl: Utah (60%) vs Texas (40%); Boise State 30%, Texas Tech 20%, Missouri 15%, Oklahoma 10%, Georgia 10%, TCU 5%, BYU 5%, Florida 5%

Sugar Bowl: Florida (50%) vs Ohio State (30%); Alabama (50%), MSU (30%), Big East (20%), USC (15%),
Boise State (5%)

Orange Bowl: ACC (100%) vs Big East(80%), BYU 5%, Ball State 5%, TCU 5%, Boise State 5%

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Packers/Vikings and the Lack of Emotion Thereof

post from Daily Norseman on 08 November 2008 09:36:58 PM. © Daily Norseman

You know, a thought occured to me over the course of the past couple days. Many people would welcome having this thought, but as someone that runs a website such as this one, the thought struck me as being somewhat troubling.

As you can plainly see from what's gone across the pages of this blog over the past couple of days, I've not approached this week's game with the Packers with the same level of zeal/anger/emotion/whatever that I've approached the other 5 Packer/Viking match-ups that have taken place since this blog got started in 2006. I'm relatively sure that it's because of the confluence of real-life events that have taken place in Gonzoland over the course of this past week. . .we had a huge Presidential election, my wife's daughter came 10,000 miles across the ocean to come and live with us for three months, dealing with bitter, spineless, pathetic assclowns on other message boards, and various other things.

I love my Vikings. . .always have. Always will. And I'm sure that tomorrow morning when I turn on the TV and sit down here in front of the computer to set up the Game Thread (which I hope we get a huge turnout for), the light will truly "come on." During a normal week, I would have started thinking about the Packer game approximately three minutes after the final gun sounded against Houston. . .gotta take two minutes to let the victory sink in, after all. But real life made a lot of intrusions this week, and as a result, this blog hasn't had nearly the coverage of Sunday's game that it really should have. For that, I apologize. I'll make every effort possible to not let it happen again.

Jared Allen might not be ready to go tomorrow, but Adrian Peterson will be. . .Bernard Berrian will be. . .the Williams boys will be. . .and so will I. And hopefully, ladies and gentlemen, that will be all we need.

Game thread opens at about 10 AM Minnesota time. Be here, or be. . .not. . .nearly as cool as the people that will be here!

Read The Full Article:
http://www.dailynorseman.com/2008/11/8/656938/packers-vikings-and-the-la

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Hayden, Muir and Hall ruled out for tomorrow

post from Stampede Blue on 08 November 2008 08:33:59 PM. © Stampede Blue

Hayden, Muir and Hall ruled out for tomorrow

Read The Full Article:
http://www.stampedeblue.com/2008/11/8/656921/hayden-muir-and-hall-ruled

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Third Down Defense: Inside the Numbers

post from Stampede Blue on 08 November 2008 07:01:37 PM. © Stampede Blue

We've all seen how the Colts have struggled on 3rd downs this year. Seemingly every third down is converted by our opponent, especially at the most inopportune times. I decided to take a closer look at the Colts 3rd down defense, breaking it down by:

Run/Pass
Distance

Here is a summary of the first 8 games, and after the jump I'll put each individual game, so you can see how the defense did against each opponent.

Total Run Pass Total Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Pct Short (≤ 3) 16 16 7 13 23 29 79% Middle (4 - 7) 2 7 18 36 20 43 47% Long (8+) 1 9 8 26 9 35 26% Total 19 32 33 75 52 107 49% Pct59.4% 44.0% 48.6%

Some things to notice:

Running plays on Third and short are a perfect 16/16. That, to put it bluntly, is awful. We have not stopped a 3rd and short on the ground all year. It's true we've had some struggles with the DL, but that is absolutely unacceptable.
Related to the first point, why would a team try to pass the ball on the Colts with 3rd and short? Minnesota was the worst, going 0/3, and not trying to run it at all on 3rd and short.
Teams are only 3/16 running the ball on 3rd and 4 or more. That is very good, and unexpected. Teams have tried to catch the defense off guard in a passing situation, and it hasn't worked.
There were only 2 times that the defense stopped the 3rd down, but had a penalty that gave the other team a first down. I certainly thought it was more, but it was only twice. And only once did it lead to points.
The Titans were 4/6 on 3rd and longs. That game can boil down right to that. Even just stopping 2 of those could have been the difference.
Overall, the Colts rank 30th in 3rd down percentage. My numbers are slightly different, as I included those 2 cases where a penalty gave the other team a first down a conversion, while officially they were fails. That seems dumb to me, but it is what it is. If the Colts expect to make the playoffs, this needs to dramatically improve. Getting down under 40% should be the goal.

Like I said above, game by game numbers are after the jump.

Chicago Minnesota Run Pass Total Run Pass Total Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Short (<= 3) 5 5 2 2 7 7 0 0 0 3 0 3 Middle (4 - 7) 1 2 1 2 2 4 0 2 2 4 2 6 Long (8+) 0 2 1 3 1 5 0 0 0 4 0 4 Total 6 9 4 7 10 16 0 2 2 11 2 13 Jacksonville Houston Run Pass Total Run Pass Total Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Short (<= 3) 3 3 0 1 3 4 2 2 3 3 5 5 Middle (4 - 7) 1 2 4 5 5 7 0 0 1 3 1 3 Long (8+) 0 0 0 3 0 3 1 3 0 2 1 5 Total 4 5 4 9 8 14 3 5 4 8 7 13 Baltimore Green Bay Run Pass Total Run Pass Total Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Short (<= 3) 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 Middle (4 - 7) 0 0 0 4 0 4 0 0 4 8 4 8 Long (8+) 0 1 1 4 1 5 0 1 1 1 1 2 Total 1 2 2 9 3 11 1 2 5 10 6 12 Tennessee New England Run Pass Total Run Pass Total Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Conv Att Short (<= 3) 2 2 0 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 3 3 Middle (4 - 7) 0 0 2 5 2 5 0 1 4 5 4 6 Long (8+) 0 1 4 5 4 6 0 1 1 4 1 5 Total 2 3 6 11 8 14 2 4 6 10 8 14

Poll

Which is most surprising with regards to the Colts and 3rd down defense?

Read The Full Article:
http://www.stampedeblue.com/2008/11/8/656850/third-down-defense-inside

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Adam Vinatieri will play through pain and not
complain about it

post from Stampede Blue on 08 November 2008 06:29:06 PM. © Stampede Blue

So, why did Adam Vinatieri have such an up-and-down year last season? He was playing on a bad knee, but never once used it as an excuse:

With eight touchbacks through eight games [in 2008], Vinatieri would seem a lock for a career high. He had 10 in 2005 and 2006.
The difference, Vinatieri said, is health and emphasis. Vinatieri fought the lingering effects of a broken bone in his foot in 2006, then played last season with a left knee problem.

So, when he was kicking game-winning FGs against the Broncos and Ravens in 2006, Vinatieri was struggling with a BROKEN BONE in his foot. Last season, he fought his way through playing on a bad leg, and all many of us Colts fans did was bash him and say he was "done."

Now, he is healthy and booming kickoffs. He also just won AFC Special Teams Players of the Week for kicking his second, long, game-winning FG this season. His improved kicking is a big reason why the special teams have been so much better in 2008.

"[The touchbacks are] like a breather," special teams standout Melvin Bullitt said. "That's a 60-yard sprint, and it's almost like, 'Thank you, man. I'm going to have great field position and a little more energy for defense.' "

There is a reason I simply do not tolerate talk of replacing or cutting Adam Vinatieri. Name me one other kicker in this league who is tougher than Adam V? Name me one other kicker that is more clutch?

You can't. So don't bother.

Again, keep your playoffs chokers like Nate Kaeding. While other teams fight over the rights to 40-year-old Matt Stover, our guy kicks FGs and wins games with broken foot. Adam is this team's kicker, and that is exactly how it should be. Without Adam Vinatieri, this team would be 2-6 right now and we'd be talking draft; not fighting for the playoffs. I get really pissed when I see people bash Adam V, and now you know one of the reasons why.

We fans better appreciate how friggin awesome this guy is. He is a special, spceial player.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.stampedeblue.com/2008/11/8/656855/adam-vinatieri-will-play-t

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Oklahoma dominates Texas A&M

post from Oklahoma Sooners Football Blog on 08 November 2008 03:01:00 PM. © Oklahoma Sooners Football Blog

Oklahoma Sooner Football Articles and Notes

Sooners roll Aggies 66-28: Sam Bradford threw touchdown passes to four different receivers, Chris Brown ran for three scores and No. 6 Oklahoma started fast again and routed Texas A&M 66-28 on Saturday. DeMarco Murray, Matt Clapp, Ryan Broyles and Juaquin Iglesias had TD catches and Bradford had a touchdown run for the Sooners (9-1, 5-1 Big 12), who set a single-game scoring record for an opponent at Kyle Field. The Sooners have scored 231 points in four games since a 45-35 loss to Texas. (Associated Press)

Read The Full Article:
http://www.gnextinc.com/ousoonersblog/2008/11/oklahoma-dominates-texas.html

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Don't forget to get your predictions in & USC/Cal
Open Thread

post from Niners Nation on 08 November 2008 03:00:05 PM. © Niners Nation

I'm away from my computer most of the day today so I won't be able to promote the Prediction Contest FanPost to the front page until 5 or 6 tonight. However, thanks to the power of scheduling posts, I'm scheduling this the day before to get the link up for making your predictions:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2008/11/5/654943/week-10-prediction-games

In the meantime, feel free to use this as an open thread for college football today. There is of course the Cal-USC game, which has huge Rose Bowl implications. Although I'd imagine USC could roll in this game, a Cal win puts them in the drivers seat for a Rose Bowl bid. Cal has tough games against Oregon State and Stanford left, but a win today would be monstrous.

Also on the docket for today are #1 Alabama at #16 LSU and #2 Texas Tech hosting #9 Oklahoma State. Needless to say, it's a big day of college football.

So, enjoy college football Saturday and don't forget to get your predictions in before kickoff tomorrow morning.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.ninersnation.com/2008/11/8/656262/don-t-forget-to-get-your-p

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Ideal Scenario Week 10: We Need Help!

At 3-5 and without many tiebreakers, the Jags are gonna need some assistance to make a playoff run this year (Unless they win every game for the rest of the season). Like I've said previously, 10-6 may not cut it without some other teams faltering. If we went 11-5, we'd definitely secure a playoff birth, but that's highly unlikely to occur.

TEAMS THAT OWN THE TIE-BREAKER AGAINST US:

Cincinnati - Buffalo - Cleveland - Pittsburgh

The biggest loss comes from Cleveland, who we now need to completely collapse in the second half of the season. They lost to Denver on Thursday, which was Ideal because Denver is a team we want to win their division since San Diego has imploded and likely has no chance at a playoff run this year.

THIS WEEK'S KEY MATCH-UPS

Denver @ Cleveland - Denver won (IDEAL) Brady Quinn played very well, he has the look of a pro QB.

Baltimore @ Houston - Houston winning would be ideal because the Ravens have a 2 game lead on us now and are in direct competition for a Wild-Card. Luckily, we play them the last game of the season and that game may determine whether we get a playoff berth or not.

Seattle @ Miami - Always root for the NFC in an AFC vs NFC match-up, unless it's a team we want to win their division. Plus Miami is ahead of us in the Wild-Card race

St. Louis @ New York Jets - Always root for the NFC in an AFC vs NFC match-up unless it's a team we want to win their division. The Bills need to win the AFC East (because they own the tie-breaker against us), so the Jets must continue to lose even though we all love Brett.

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh - Pitt must win their division. Indianapolis' reign in the AFC has come to an end.

Kansas City @ San Diego - San Diego is still a talented organization so we'd like to go ahead and put them out of contention for a Wild-Card. One more loss and they're all but eliminated.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Buffalo @ New England - Buffalo needs to get back on track to win the division. They are currently behind the division leading Patriots, and with the league's easiest schedule, it looks like the Patriots are a lock to gobble up one of the Wild-Card spots. I hate Beel Beelichick (thanks Cartman... that never gets old), and I'll hate him even more if he makes the playoffs again this season. everyone will say it's because he's a great coach, but it's really a product of their schedule. He'll ALWAYS be a cheater in my book.

-Collin

Read The Full Article:
http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2008/11/8/656704/ideal-scenario-week-10-we

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